# Kanmon funnel volumes: summary

**Full:** `kanmon-funnel-volume-simulation-20260729.md`  
**All counts [SIM]** unless noted · not Kanmon disclosed

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## Base month (visibility assumed solid)

| Stage | N | Step CVR |
|-------|---|----------|
| Seen | 8,000 |, |
| Clicked | 960 | 12% |
| Started | 480 | 50% |
| **Submitted** | **192** | **40%** ← biggest PM leak |
| Decision | 182 | 95% |
| **Offer** | **82** | **45%** ← credit box (not your model) |
| Preventable of declines | ~18 / 100 | data/process |
| Accepted | 57 | 70% |
| **Funded** | **51** | 90% |

**~$0.9M funded / mo** · invoice/AP by count · term by $

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## Drop-off story (Start→Submit = 288)

Handoff/login 22% · mid-form 28% · bank link 20% · KYB/entity 18% · never return 12%

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## Settled opportunity size (financing $) · [SIM]

**Book:** ~51 funded / mo · **~$912k funded $ / mo** · blended ticket **~$18k**  
**Downstream rates (hold credit box fixed):** Submit→Funded **26.6%** · Offer→Funded **62.2%**

### Abandon pot (lead bet): intent already expressed

| | |
|--|--|
| Abandoned Start→Submit | **288** / mo |
| Gross ceiling (100% → submit @ 26.6% fund) | **~77 funded · ~$1.4M** / mo |
| Core email-recovery fit (mid-form + never return) | **~115** of 288 |

**T-shirt recovery** (% of 288 → extra submits → funded @ 26.6% × ~$18k):

| Size | Recover → submit | Extra funded / mo | Extra financed $ / mo |
|------|------------------|-------------------|------------------------|
| **S** | 10% | ~8 | **~$140k** |
| **M** ★ default | ~17% (+10 pts CVR) | **~13–14** | **~$230–250k** |
| **L** | 30% | ~23 | **~$410k** |

Full write-up: [`kanmon-abandon-opportunity-sizing-20260729.md`](kanmon-abandon-opportunity-sizing-20260729.md)

### Preventable (secondary: many shapes, no silver bullet)

| Pot | Journeys | Gross | If halved |
|-----|----------|-------|-----------|
| Preventable decline | ~18 | ~11 · ~$200k | ~+6 · ~$100k |

Pre-start (Click→Start ≈ 480) = secondary under A2; don’t lead with it.

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## Every opp counts

| Lift | Extra funded / mo | Extra funded $ / mo |
|------|-------------------|---------------------|
| Abandon recovery **M** (40%→50%) | **~13–14** | **~$230–250k** |
| Abandon recovery **S** / **L** | ~8 / ~23 | ~$140k / ~$410k |
| Halve preventable (secondary) | **~+6** | **~$100–110k** |

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## Say on the call

> Illustrative: ~50 funded/mo · Start→Submit ~40%. Drove to **abandon** (intent started; biggest PM pot). Abandon has many reasons. I explore prevent vs recover. Lead = **improve the submission experience** (keep them in-flow); recover is worthwhile but secondary because most never complete. Medium lift ~+10 pts ≈ **~+14 originations / ~$230–250k**/mo. Logic: `kanmon-drive-down-submission-experience-20260730.md`

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## Flow visual

[`kanmon-funnel-flow-visual-20260729.html`](kanmon-funnel-flow-visual-20260729.html), **Partner × product + leaks only** (All / by-product / by-partner views killed). Hover bands for Cleo×Invoice, PingPong×AP, etc.

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## Labels

**[SIM]** fictional · **[FACT]** public · **[INTERVIEW]** the team